Love the enthusiasm. But I’m afraid a special election says little that is relevant to this election - for two major reasons: 1) special elections are generally only participated in by the most committed voters and 2) a significant part of Trumps base is low propensity voters and non voters. Neither of those would even show up in a special election.
Having said that, I think a lot of your points about this years Harris campaign are valid. So I too am cautiously optimistic … that she can get 271. 😉 beyond that I will be drunk with joy anyway!
A few days ago I would have laughed and passed on from this without comment. However, Trump is truly being in-American in his lies about the FEMA aid from Biden.
I think many people have family/friends in the FL/NC areas who now know how good the help is.
Many people who might have voted Red are now turning Blue!
It’s difficult to be totally blind about the lies in a time of emergency and crisis!
Any state with a red governor will not cooperate in the election. And there’s absolutely nothing that the people can do about that because we elected an autocrat in 2016, and now we have autocratic governors in 20 out of the 50 states.
Great article, I have long believed some of the above paths possible. Here's why: 1. Polls in FL and TX, aggregate polls in FL below 3%, the margin of error, may not be showing the Democratic strength of women and Gen Z;
2. Polling of women and Gen Z may be undercounted, Democratic, because neither, especially women in red states, have historically been great polling recipients, meaning red state women may be hesitant to share their voting preferences with a stranger and Gen Z isn't into polls, won't answer;
3. The country is just sick of Trump, the drama and the threat to Democracy and
4. MAGA is at most 30% of the vote, Democrats are 45 plus % and independents make up the difference. Polling shows independents are breaking 3 to 1 for Harris.
Those huge paths are possible but just winning is the important thing.
People need to understand that many, many polls are bought and paid for by Republicans. Their goal is to skew the polling averages to favor Trump. They are extremely biased, on purpose, to set up the narrative that there must be voter fraud because Trump was leading in the polls but lost the election.
It's a shame that reputable firms like 538 and Real Clear Politics includes these garbage polls. In addition, most of these GOP polls only ask about the Presidency, not the Senate or Governors races in the swing states. Doesn't anybody wonder why Democrats are dominating the Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and leading in Pennsylvania, and dominating the NC Governors race, but the POTUS races are much closer? Do we really think that so many voters in these states are going to vote for the Democrat in the Senate race and then Trump for POTUS?
Every legitimate data point shows a big win for Harris: the Senate races, the Governors races, the generic D vs. R House polls, voter enthusiasm, fund raising, crowd sizes, and of course the special election results since Roe was overturned.
Don't fret, don't lose any sleep over it, and don't look at these garbage polls. JUST VOTE!
I find it easy enough to just add 2 points when Rassamusan and other Republican sponsored polls are included. If you look at all of what's included in aggregate polls like Real Clear, you can see how much you need to adjust the total projection to make it accurate.
I’m going to say it’s a no, but if it DOES happen, that day should immediately be named a National holiday by a BIPARTISAN Congress, because unceremoniously ridding this country of the MAGA movement and every one of its traitors will make America great again.
Exactly right. Among other issues, the pollsters cannot reach large numbers of voters because they don’t answer calls from unknown numbers. A lot of those are young voters who are going to vote for Harris. 335 is the minimum electoral vote she gets.
I’m hoping as an Australian that there are more normal people who think trump is deranged and unhinged and not willing to risk their country on him. I’m always told by Trumpers “Why don’t you worry about your own country Fkn kangaroo” like really that’s all you have? Being laughed at because the government took illegal guns away in a no questions asked buyback scheme where we’ve had no mass shootings for over 30 years. But they only care about their guns but I’m a world citizen and I care about a loony having nuclear weapons in his control. Please please let this prediction be true.
He has hypnotized every single American to either hate him or love him, and there are more that hate him, but the electoral college will make sure that the ruling class loves him.
Love the enthusiasm. But I’m afraid a special election says little that is relevant to this election - for two major reasons: 1) special elections are generally only participated in by the most committed voters and 2) a significant part of Trumps base is low propensity voters and non voters. Neither of those would even show up in a special election.
Having said that, I think a lot of your points about this years Harris campaign are valid. So I too am cautiously optimistic … that she can get 271. 😉 beyond that I will be drunk with joy anyway!
I sure hope so!
A few days ago I would have laughed and passed on from this without comment. However, Trump is truly being in-American in his lies about the FEMA aid from Biden.
I think many people have family/friends in the FL/NC areas who now know how good the help is.
Many people who might have voted Red are now turning Blue!
It’s difficult to be totally blind about the lies in a time of emergency and crisis!
Oh this is great! Anybody could win! I might win! But what I want to see is trumpf get humiliated! Mondale 1984! It’d be so so so very good
God willing
Any state with a red governor will not cooperate in the election. And there’s absolutely nothing that the people can do about that because we elected an autocrat in 2016, and now we have autocratic governors in 20 out of the 50 states.
Great article, I have long believed some of the above paths possible. Here's why: 1. Polls in FL and TX, aggregate polls in FL below 3%, the margin of error, may not be showing the Democratic strength of women and Gen Z;
2. Polling of women and Gen Z may be undercounted, Democratic, because neither, especially women in red states, have historically been great polling recipients, meaning red state women may be hesitant to share their voting preferences with a stranger and Gen Z isn't into polls, won't answer;
3. The country is just sick of Trump, the drama and the threat to Democracy and
4. MAGA is at most 30% of the vote, Democrats are 45 plus % and independents make up the difference. Polling shows independents are breaking 3 to 1 for Harris.
Those huge paths are possible but just winning is the important thing.
People need to understand that many, many polls are bought and paid for by Republicans. Their goal is to skew the polling averages to favor Trump. They are extremely biased, on purpose, to set up the narrative that there must be voter fraud because Trump was leading in the polls but lost the election.
It's a shame that reputable firms like 538 and Real Clear Politics includes these garbage polls. In addition, most of these GOP polls only ask about the Presidency, not the Senate or Governors races in the swing states. Doesn't anybody wonder why Democrats are dominating the Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and leading in Pennsylvania, and dominating the NC Governors race, but the POTUS races are much closer? Do we really think that so many voters in these states are going to vote for the Democrat in the Senate race and then Trump for POTUS?
Every legitimate data point shows a big win for Harris: the Senate races, the Governors races, the generic D vs. R House polls, voter enthusiasm, fund raising, crowd sizes, and of course the special election results since Roe was overturned.
Don't fret, don't lose any sleep over it, and don't look at these garbage polls. JUST VOTE!
I watch polling closely and agree.
I find it easy enough to just add 2 points when Rassamusan and other Republican sponsored polls are included. If you look at all of what's included in aggregate polls like Real Clear, you can see how much you need to adjust the total projection to make it accurate.
I’m going to say it’s a no, but if it DOES happen, that day should immediately be named a National holiday by a BIPARTISAN Congress, because unceremoniously ridding this country of the MAGA movement and every one of its traitors will make America great again.
Exactly right. Among other issues, the pollsters cannot reach large numbers of voters because they don’t answer calls from unknown numbers. A lot of those are young voters who are going to vote for Harris. 335 is the minimum electoral vote she gets.
Exactly.
And we're getting likely voter polls now which I believe wouldn't grab new voters.
I’m hoping as an Australian that there are more normal people who think trump is deranged and unhinged and not willing to risk their country on him. I’m always told by Trumpers “Why don’t you worry about your own country Fkn kangaroo” like really that’s all you have? Being laughed at because the government took illegal guns away in a no questions asked buyback scheme where we’ve had no mass shootings for over 30 years. But they only care about their guns but I’m a world citizen and I care about a loony having nuclear weapons in his control. Please please let this prediction be true.
He has hypnotized every single American to either hate him or love him, and there are more that hate him, but the electoral college will make sure that the ruling class loves him.
I'm glad you're here.
TexAss Blue?
No way.
Those corrupt fuckers will cheat like hell.
PREDICTION: MANY BLUE STATES WILL GO RED BECAUSE THEY'RE CHEATING LIKE HELL
Texas and Florida are turning blue. Because the Republican candidates are terrible. When they do it won’t be surprising. Or every poll is bad lol.
I love this analysis!
Thank you! 😉
Hope so
Me too.
Oh please oh please oh please
I hope so