Could Harris be on Her Way to a 350+ Electoral College Blowout?
The short answer is: Yes!
In 2023 special elections, Democrats performed +11 points better than the districts base partisan lean. What this means is if a district leans Republican by 5 points (R +5) and the Democrats wins by 6 points (D +6) then that means that candidate performed 11 points better than the base partisanship of the district.
ABC News reported on the special elections in 2023 and the average performance of the Democratic candidates in those races was +11.
The website 270toWin has an electoral map that you can pick which way a state will vote, and it will tally the resulting electoral votes for the Republicans and Democrats in that scenario. I took this information and created map that showed what would happen if the +11 performance of the Democrats in 2023 carried over into the 2024 general election.
In my +11 scenario, Harris would win the Electoral College 416 to 122 (https://www.270towin.com/maps/DL4O9)
That large a blowout hasn’t been seen since 1988 when George H. W. Bush beat Governor Michael Dukakis 426 to 111.
Even though it’s possible that Harris gets 416 EC votes, it does not seem probable given the current state of our country. What if instead, Harris swings only +8 points? She still wins 390 to 148.
And +6? Harris wins 389 to 149.
+4? Harris wins 349 to 189.
+2? Harris wins 319 to 219.
The state of punditry today would scoff at the idea that Harris will receive more than 300 electoral votes this cycle. The polls show this. The polls show that. The polls show the other.
I am not going to be a poll-birther and sit here and argue that the polls are wrong. They are probably not wrong showing what they are measuring. But are they measuring the right thing? Are they measuring what they think they are measuring?
Pundits on the other hand have a vested interest in talking about how the state of the race is simply too close to call. How it’s a horse race that anybody could win. Could anyone win? Sure, anything’s possible. It is better for the pundit’s wallets to keep perceptions of the race as tight as possible for as long as possible. That’s how they keep themselves in lucrative network contracts. That’s how they keep themselves writing for news organizations. That’s how they keep themselves in paid speaking gigs.
I keep going back to how people have voted and are voting. Polls can give you a general mood. They can show the direction of movement. But votes are determinative.
The American electorate has been voting since Donald Trump snuck a victory in 2016 to excise Trump from our body politic. It hasn’t been an overnight or one cycle project. We’ve been at it for going on eight years. But we’ve been doing it.
I believe we are going to continue doing and the political industry has no idea what’s coming in November 2024.
I love this article just because seeing Texas turn Blue over and over, makes me happy.😃 We are working so hard without any help nationally and it is a huge state. But it is so much closer than anyone can imagine. If you could see the giant billboards that rural democrats are putting out, the signs everywhere. And you really only need to look at the top of the ticket.
No not at Colin Allred—At Trump and Cruz.
Want to know what really drives turnout? Those two. And what happens when there is a major turnout? Democrats win.
Having Cruz run during a presidential year means he is toast. In 2012, he trailed Romney by 120,000 votes. Then he barely got reelected with 200,00 votes in 2018.
Since then he fled to Cancun when the rest of the state was freezing, has said being pregnant isn’t a dangerous condition when the maternal mortality rates just came out after Cruz supported the reverse of Roe and cheered on the state to ban abortion with no exception and women are actually dying…oh and he hid in the closet on January 6 when a mob stormed the capitol after he contested the results of Arizona’s election. All while Colin Allred was fighting for veterans of this state and comprehensive border politics and the all the bills that have brought huge booms for the Texas economy, AND held the door so his colleagues could safely evacuate the building on January 6… no one in Texas likes Ted Cruz and that is why we will stun the nation on Nov. 5 and give 40 electoral votes to KAMALA HARRIS.
LC! Great to read you!
My sense is that the energy is with Harris this cycle.
Sure, it could be close. And as you say, that is what the professional pundits want.
But it could also be a blowout.
And I think that possibility is being missed by conventional wisdom.
All of which reminds me of a quote from the late, great Herb Kelleher, on “conventional wisdom.” He said, “if it’s wisdom, it ain’t conventional. And if it’s conventional, it ain’t wisdom.”