Breaking: Florida is within the margin of error!

This is not a drill!

Is it happening?

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In 2016 Trump won Florida by 1.2 points. In 2020 Trump won by 3.4 points. Nate Silver’s model has Trump with a margin of 3.3 with Harris gaining 1.1 over the last month. The momentum is in Harris’s direction. This puts Florida within the MOE.

There are caveats like the weakness of the state Democratic party. They are trying to rebuild under the leadership of Nikki Fried. Florida received a lot of COVID refugees during the pandemic and more than half of those are or lean Republican. Florida has been trending redder for almost a decade.

But…

Like a Red Sox fan in early March, there are reasons to think that maybe this year?

1) There’s an abortion amendment on the ballot this year. The amendment needs to pass with 60% of the vote and it is currently polling at 76%. There are plenty of Trump supporters going to vote for this amendment, but it should mostly help Florida Democrats turnout as they seek to protect their rights.

2) There’s a Senate race going on where the Republican candidate is basically Voldemort.

3) There are a lot of Haitian and Venezuelan Americans that live in Florida. Maybe they’ll want to take some sweet revenge on the Trump/Vance ticket for trying to make everyone else think they want to break into your kitchen to cut your throat and then eat a nice dinner of dog and cat afterward?

Democratic turnout in 2022 collapsed when they ran a wet noodle, Charlie Crist, against Ron DeSantis for governor. There’s every reason to believe they are very motivated to come out in 2024.

I’m not saying there’s a 100% chance that Florida goes to Harris. But it’s not 0% either. Silver’s poll gives Harris a 21% chance to win Florida as of today. I am saying that Florida has often gone a direction that nobody predicted. This is especially true since 2000.